Financial Development and Economic Growth: Explaining the by Charles A. E. Goodhart (eds.)

By Charles A. E. Goodhart (eds.)

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As shown in Equation l. 1, this variable alon e explains 47 per cent of cross-country variation in absolute poverty (share of populatio n below $1 a day). 6 percentage point reduction in absolute poverty. B). ' Anyway wit h this add itio n, th e RSQ is up to 58 per cent (Equation I. e). Now it's time to add in th e financial var iables. Star tin g wit h the standa rd no n-govern ment (-pnvat e") credit vari able. " On e is Panama, an offsho re center, the other two are Tha ilan d and Ch ina. (We \\'111 return to Chi na below, observing tha t most Chinese "non-govern me nt" credit is to stat e-own ed or controlled firms).

First is the value-added of the ban king secto r as measure d in the nation al inco me an d expe ndi ture accounts. 11 To the exte nt that the value-a dded does represen t the contribut ion of the sector to G Dp, it would appear to be a poten tially good meas ure. In partieut ar, if the prices charged an d profits received indicate social va lue prov ided , then it ma y ta ke us beyond the aggregates. However, it is largely an input-based measu re in an env ironme nt often cha racter ized by lack of competit ion, an d one in which ma ny of the socia l benefits of in term ediation may n ot be captured by the in termediaries.

Aggregate national fluctua tions cannot easily be insured, so the second momen t must be of some relevance . Likewise the poverty dimension may be imp ortant if, as has been suggested by the empirical evidence provi ded above, some policy approaches are more effective in reducing poverty than ot he rs, condit ional on growth. Finally, it is likely that grow th at the production frontie r (attained in adva nced econom ies) has somewhat different deter minants th a n grow th which is ma in ly a convergence to th at frontier.

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