Macroeconomic Stabilization in Transition Economies by Mario I. Blejer, Marko Skreb

By Mario I. Blejer, Marko Skreb

The essays during this quantity discover the unique kind of reforms and regulations which are required within the post-socialist nations of japanese Europe and the previous Soviet Union so as to lessen inflation and to forestall the autumn in output that the cave in of Communism. The articles accrued during this publication research intimately either the analytical underpinning of this approach, the general relationships between stabilization, reforms, and development, and the categorical stabilization event in a couple of international locations. furthermore, the amount discusses a few of the crucial coverage matters with regards to company habit in post-socialist nations and appears on the longer-run dimensions of a profitable transition.

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Example text

In CEE, since stabilization preceded growth, it seems that the opportunity cost of not stabilizing would have been potential growth, which in turn suggests that the cost of not stabilizing is actually higher than the cost of doing so. Neither China and Vietnam nor countries affected by regional tensions are included in this analysis. Most of the latter were still suffering from high inflation in 1994 - although Croatia and the FYR Macedonia had recently introduced stabilization programs - and the East Asia countries were growing strongly throughout the 1989-94 period in an environment of low to moderate inflation.

These factors may explain a tendency for recorded levels to be higher in Eastern Europe than in FSU countries that are comparably advanced in the reform process. For example, a considerable proportion of the unemployed recorded in Hungary are believed to have been working, and Orazem and Vodopivec (1994) find evidence in Slovenia that the duration of registered unemployment is closely associated with the duration of benefits, with many people finding work in the last months of eligibility. In contrast, limited unemployment benefits in Armenia and the stigma associated with being unemployed Table 6.

GELB Nonreform prototype P- • " " " Reform prototype Year of reform or nonreform as indicated by normalized CLI Figure 6. Inflation profiles for reform and nonreform, based on 26 countries' regression coefficients. Figure 7. Paths of growth by reform group. Under the second approach to exploring the time profile of transition, we analyze the experience of the 20 CEE and FSU countries in the four reform groups identified earlier and use regression analysis to trace the average experience of each of these groups, as it starts reform, over the reform period.

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