Oecd Economic Outlook: June 2003 (Oecd Economic Outlook) by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

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A) General government fiscal surplus (+) or deficit (-) as a percentage of GDP. b) Includes all financial liabilities minus financial assets, as defined by the System of National Accounts (where data availability permits) and covers the general government sector, which is a consolidation of central government, state and local government and the social security sector. c) Includes all financial liabilities, as defined by the System of National Accounts (where data availability permits) and covers the general government sector, which is a consolidation of central government, state and local government and the social security sector.

1 Regarding the former, movements in asset prices generate capital gains and losses, which impact on tax revenues with various lags. These movements are not necessarily correlated with cycles in economic activity, and can be seen as structural where the fundamentals determining asset prices (such as profit and productivity growth and risk premia) have undergone change. Where they have not, however, the cyclically-adjusted balance may give too favourable a “structural” picture by not recognising the temporary nature of tax buoyancy due to asset price fluctuations.

The conflict in the Middle East and the earlier strikes in Venezuela resulted in a sharp run-up in petroleum prices. The cold winter and lean stock levels have also led to sharp increases in natural gas and electricity prices. 30 50 100 45 90 80 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 1. University of Michigan. Source: Institute for Supply Management, US Census Bureau and OECD. 0 a) As a percentage of disposable income. b) As a percentage of GDP. c) 3-month euro-dollar. d) 10-year government bonds. Source: OECD.

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