Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology: Comparing by Kerstin Cuhls

By Kerstin Cuhls

In Japan, the Delphi procedure is utilized on the grounds that 1971 to foresee attainable technological advancements. a similar method was once utilized in Germany in 1992 for the 1st time. The German specialist survey in regards to the improvement of destiny expertise used to be in accordance with the japanese survey performed in 1991 and mentioned an identical topics.
In this e-book, the result of either reviews are in comparison and analysed. From the comparability, conclusions may be drawn at the relevance of sure expertise fields or disciplines not just for public expertise coverage but in addition for corporations. attainable instances of recognition, constraints at the recognition, the present R&D point of countries or the need of foreign co-operation provide tricks approximately tomorrow's expertise and its monetary and societal impacts.

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The distribution for Japan is sharp and concentrated in a fairly narrow importance range, while that for Germany is flat and is in a much broader range. In the German survey, there were more topics with very high or very low importance rating than in the Japanese survey. 2).

Hence, the number of compared topics in this report is 1,146 although the questionnaires consisted of 1,150 in Japan (1,149 in the report) and 1,147 topics in Germany. Despite all the problems mentioned, and others, the translation seems to have been successful in general as the answers and comments of the experts prove. A few exceptions, whose meaning was not unambiguously defined, remain problematic. The translation was very time consuming as experts had to be consulted repeatedly. The majority of the technical questions was unproblematic but individual ones required extensive research.

In making the comparative analysis, we indexed each question item to quantify the results of the Japanese and German technology forecast surveys. Below is an explanation of what is contained in each question item and how we indexed the question item and calculated the forecasts realization time. For all variables only the responses given by respondents who have expertise "High", "Middle" or "Low" on the topic in question are considered in the analyses. Responses by respondents who indicated "None" to the degree of expertise have not been considered.

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