Phases of Economic Growth, 1850–1973: Kondratieff Waves and by Solomos Solomou

By Solomos Solomou

Utilizing facts from Britain, France, Germany, the USA, and the realm economic climate among 1850 and 1973, this publication provides a transparent and systematic exam of the facts for long term styles of monetary progress. the writer refutes the lifestyles of lengthy (Kondratieff) waves during financial improvement, and as a substitute provides persuasive proof for a progress development characterised via episodic lengthy swing fluctuations of twenty to thirty years, documenting and explaining those stages in a historic viewpoint.

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However, the bias in the Abramovitz ASCS method is much reduced from that of the Kuznets method of overlapping decades. This can explain the difference in the empirical findings of Kuznets (1958) and Abramovitz (1959) - Kuznets's average swing is twenty-two years while Abramovitz's average swing is only fourteen years. Thus, the statistical methodology employed by the early analysts of long waves and long swings is based on arbitrary assumptions about the additive and stable nature of the trend-cycle relationship.

The low-growth phase of 1899-1913 continued over the period 1913-29. Although the growth rate during the period 1925-9 increased significantly, the period was too short to affect the long-run trends. During 1929—37 economic growth showed signs of traversing onto a higher path, making up for some of the losses of 1899-1929. This high-growth trajectory continued during the* period 1937-51. Such a continuity suggests that the low-growth phase over the period 1913—29 was not related to the war conditions.

240) presented his original national income data in the form of overlapping decadal averages. This is equivalent to a fixed moving average process to smooth out the short-run fluctuations. It can be proved that employing this method will also give rise to statistical artefacts. Bird et ah (1965, pp. 229-31) found that for a cycle with an exact periodicity of four years, the use of overlapping decades will give rise to a twenty-year cycle in growth rates. 1. Starting with a peak and collecting every fifth observation, as is done in the overlapping decade method, points 2, 7, 12, 17, 2 2 .

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